Al-Qaeda 2007

As 2006 closes and 2007 begins, we all have a tendency evaluate the past year and look forward to changes in the new year. Looking at al-Qaeda, Strategic Forecast sees a 'devolution' of al-Qaeda's operational model the pre-9/11 model. A shift 'from al Qaeda "the group" to a broader global jihadist movement. This essentially was a shift from an al Qaeda operational model based on an "all-star team" of operatives that was selected, trained and dispatched by the central leadership to the target, to an operational model that encourages independent "grassroots" jihadists to conduct attacks, or to a model in which al Qaeda provides operational commanders who organize grassroots cells.'

If true, what does this mean for the global war on terror? Looking back, al-Qaeda's attacks during 2006 are considered failures:

This shift has provided al Qaeda "the movement" broader geographic and operational reach than al Qaeda "the group." This larger, dispersed group of actors, however, lacks the operational depth and expertise of the core group and its well-trained terrorist cadre. ...

The major attacks in 2006 in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia; Dahab, Egypt; Dubba and Marib, Yemen; and Damascus, Syria, were all conducted by existing regional nodes and not the main al Qaeda organization. These attacks did show a broad geographic reach stretching across the Middle East but, except for the Dahab attack, they were essentially all failures.

Overall, 2006 was not a good year for the al Qaeda nodes in Saudi Arabia and the Sinai. It also was a dismal year for the Iraq affiliate, whose charismatic leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed in June.

Looking forward to 2007, Strategic Forecast sees this trend continuing. They see al-Qaeda being used for publicity. They see terror attacks mostly on 'soft targets' such as hotels, trains and subways. "... the number of attacks and the casualties they generated were down for 2006. In many cases, such as Damascus, Abqaiq and Yemen, the attacks resulted in the deaths of more attackers than victims, and the only attack to produce a sizable death toll was in Dahab, where 24 people died.'

Al-Qaeda is still 'interested in striking financial targets, aircraft and chemical/petroleum plants'.

Once again in 2006 there has been no successful attack on U.S. soil -- though the thwarted airliner plot was definitely aimed at the United States. ...

The U.S. government and its allies have been successful over the past year in disrupting terrorist plots and plans in many locations. The strategy of disruption these countries are following is really quite simple: It is better to pick up an al Qaeda suspect on immigration fraud or another lesser offense than to investigate a smoking hole in the ground.

NPR asks, "In 2006, Attacks Were Thwarted. But Why?" Strategic Forecast has said it's because we are not afraid to arrest terror suspects before they have actually committed a terror attack. NPR gives three differing opinions:

Last week, Zawahiri released his fifteenth tape of the year.

In it, Zawahiri warns of the consequences of U.S. military action in Muslim countries. He concludes: Just as our emir, Sheik Osama bin Laden, may God watch over him, told you: 'As you bomb, you shall be bombed, and as you kill, you shall be killed.'"

The question is, does Al Qaeda have the ability to make good on this threat? Some experts say no, that if it could, the group would have struck already.

Ohio State University professor John Mueller, author of a book about al-Qaida titled Overblown, says the terrorist threat has been massively exaggerated.

U.S. terrorism expert John Brennan ... a CIA veteran and former head of the National Counterterrorism Center, ... "I don't think the terrorists are as plentiful or as powerful as some people would suggest," Brennan says. "They are very dangerous. And it only takes one cell to do tremendous damage, or cause significant loss of life. But I think sometimes the terrorist threat is overstated, giving one the impression that terrorists are everywhere to be found. That's not the case."

But Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University, believes the United States should take Zawahiri's threats at face value. Hoffman says, "That Zawahiri and his minions are still trying is beyond doubt. They know they only have to get lucky once." NPR

No, there isn't a terrorist around every corner. I am thankful that our government has been successful in stopping planned attacks on the U.S. and her friends. As President George W. Bush says, 'they only have to be right once'.

I would like to refer you to "Complete Series Fear Mongering or Truth? Politics of Fear" at Blue is Beautiful. Hat tip Night Rider. This is a series of excellent articles that I feel most Right Truth readers will be interested in reading.

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Comments

[Debbie]

Muslim Unity, I have not heard anything about al-Qaeda attacks related to the Hajj. This would be a very bad move on the part of al-Qaeda. At least it seems that way to me.

I will do some checking.

[Rastaman]

Well, Troutsky, as much as I hate to say it, that's what we need Liberals for. While I agree with most of the measures taken by the Republican majority after 9/11, it was clear that if left unchecked, they would run amok with excessive safeguards that removed too many of our freedoms.

We have to have balance in government to maintain our liberties and still be effective against the latest attack of fascism that's upon us. What we could do without entirely is the Left, which I don't equate with Liberals. The Leftists are more fascists, the KKK, Neo-Nazis, Islamists, Communists and Socialists. Liberals are just bleeding-heart types who want to give away the store to the less fortunate or those who pretend to be.

With all the freedoms I've watched us lose since the end of WWII, we still have a very open and free society for our size. As our population has grown, so has our burden of laws. Less people find less creative ways to commit wrongs. The land used to be mostly wide open, now property rights must be observed. There weren't any endangered species and now most of them are endangered or already extinct. We need all those laws and their enforcement to protect us from the outside world, from each other and protect our environment. It does make for a smaller world but only because we've made a whole lot more of us.

Rastaman
www.islamanazi.com

[Muslim Unity]

I have heard that the Al Qaeda wants to attack the Hajj.
Is there any new information on that from you'll here?

Thanks

[troutsky]

Do you remember Eisenhours warning to the people of the US about the build up of the "military industrial complex"? An enemy concieved as one who "only has to strike once" or "only has to be lucky once" allows for an unlimited build up to prevent a catastrophic event.No rational calculation can be made, no rational deterrence planned. All measures are justified up to and including the dismantling of liberties in the name of a security that can never be.Short of total control of all human activity.Welcome to the police state.