Iraq - who replaces Maliki?

It was suggested by a reader that the National Intelligence Estimate "errs in defining the reasons for al-Maliki Government not yet having collapsed" or Maliki not being replaced by Iraqis.. What could those reasons be?

One: Who would replace Maliki should he resign or be voted out of office? The fear of who his replacement might be could be one reason to keep him in position. His replacement could be less effective than Maliki, or he/she could be less cooperative with Americans. Who would the serious contenders be? Possible names: Hasehmi, Mehdi, Hakim, Allawi, Jafaari, just to name the major ones.

Two: The al-Maliki Government has not collapsed because continued stalemate plays to full advantage of key power groups, each hiding behind the failing Prime Minister, including the American President, who has taken to stating, that progress would be at-hand, if only the PM were better at his job.

The Sadrists hide behind the PM, because inertia enables them to build the movement, while having one leg within the Government, while sabotaging it through their Parliamentary bloc. Similar reasoning applies to others. All playing the regions against the central government, as even the Secretary of Defense has now recognized.

George Will's article today:

So, consider this: When Gen. David Petraeus delivers his report on the war, his Washington audience will include two militant factions. Perhaps nothing he can responsibly say will sway either, so September will reinforce animosities. [snip]

But the scholars also said:

"The situation in Iraq remains grave," fatalities "remain very high," "the dependability of Iraqi security forces over the long term remains a major question mark," "the Iraqi National Police . . . remain mostly a disaster," "Iraqi politicians of all stripes continue to dawdle and maneuver for position," it is unclear how much longer we can "wear down our forces in this mission" or how much longer Americans should "keep fighting and dying to build a new Iraq while Iraqi leaders fail to do their part," and "once we begin to downsize, important communities may not feel committed to the status quo, and Iraqi security forces may splinter along ethnic and religious lines."

Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi is in Ankara Thursday to discuss the presence of Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq and the sectarian crisis.

A must read article, " Trojan Horse Pragmatism: Markos Moulitsas as Vanguard of the Revolution" at Burkean Reflections, discusses Peter Beinart's article "The Netroots Miss Their Stokely Carmichael Moment.
Inside Job", " a very interesting analysis of Markos Moulitsas and the netroots up at the New Republic." I suggest you read it all, but here's a taste:

Beinart notes that in dismissing the most left-wing candidates in recent presidential elections, Moulitsas is illustrating the netroots movement's political pragmatism, its willingness to coopt the Democratic Party as a mainstream institutional vehicle to advance its progressive cause. [snip]

Beinart's analysis can be taken a step further, however. Perhaps we might see Kos in the light of Marxism-Leninism. Kos's netroots movement is analogous to Lenin's vanguard of the proletariat.

You KNOW you want to go read there rest.

Also see:
George Will Warns of Coming Kander & Ebb-scored Nazi Menace, Wonkette

George Will ... uses his column today to predict that David Petraeus’ forthcoming report on the state of the Iraq War will lead to something he calls “a Weimar moment.”

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Comments

[Stormwarning]

Yes, perhaps Rastaman, but your comment does not attribute the actual cause of that carnage.

[Rastaman]

I see a massive Iraqi death toll coming that will dwarf the carnage so far.

[ortho]

An article in my "Sunday reading list" will provide historical support for Stormwarning's claim that Iraq was possibly "never meant to be a unified entity".

Drawing lines in the sand is always a difficult endeavor.

[Stormwarning]

As you know, and as I havebeen writing about for a number of months now, I frankly see the federation construct to be the only potential way to resolve the ethnic and religious differences that the "constitution" and other efforts have failed to resolve.

But even the federation has many pitfalls including:

- resolultion of oil revenue sharing

- determining the governance of the oil fields of Kirkuk

- the reaction of the Turks to a Kurdistan federation.

There are a number of other related issues, but in general, no one is either acknowledging the possibility of a federation, nor are they looking at the very real possibility that "IRAQ" was never meant to be a unified entity. One of the things that Hussein accomplished with his iron hand was to keep things running and together.

Another unintended consequence.

[Debbie]

Stormwarning, you may be right. I'm hearing more and more about the splitting of Iraq into three separate states/provinces. We will see.

[Stormwarning]

To start with, there are some (many?) conservative bloggers who have already rejected the NIE and its implications. I'll read the document later today maybe (I've not read any other analysis of it yet, and hopefully won't be swayed).

But, the question of a post-Maliki Iraqi government, IMO, goes beyond the "who." Allawi would not be an improvement. Sadr will likely leap into the power void. And if a Kurd were to replace Maliki, who knows what would happen.

I still see a partitioned federation coming.