Predicting the future, where does Africa fit in?

Break out the crystal ball and let's make some predictions. Stratfor is doing a poll on what's going to happen in the world in the near future. Africa is included in their survey. Claudia Rosett in her article Bad Faith Actor says United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon "described "the African challenge" as "the highest priority on my agenda."

Africa is the main theater of UN peacekeeping operations, the poster-continent for UN aid appeals, the object of a long series of high-minded promises and home to a huge roster of lavishly funded UN programs, projects, offices, commissions and initiatives.

Nor does the interest run only one way. At the UN itself, African nations field a considerable presence and substantial voice. [snip] African countries hold more than one-quarter of the 192 member seats in the UN's chief governing body, the General Assembly. When they band together, this gives them a regional voting bloc rivaled only by the Organization of the Islamic Conference--in which African nations in any event hold more than one-third of the seats.

Ms. Rosett reminds us of "the UN's long-standing penchant for dignifying dictators"; the "scandals highlighting ways in which the UN harms some of the very people it purports to be helping"; the "long-standing UN policy of treating the Palestinians as a unique class of refugees"; "sexually exploiting" [raping] "some of the very people they are supposed to be protecting--including, in some cases, children; positioning countries in places of power, like "Libya ... chair of the UN Human Rights Council" and "Zimbabwe was chosen at the UN to chair the Commission on Sustainable Development" and "Syria, co-chair of the IAEA".

And then there's the MONEY:

For instance, in the year 2000, the executive secretary of the UN's Economic Commission for Africa reported that "40 percent of the UN assistance currently goes to Africa."4 But when asked for a more recent round number, a spokesman for the Secretary-General's office e-mailed back to a reporter "the very concept of ‘aid' to Africa may be rather hard to define in the case of the UN." He suggested checking with various agencies "starting with UNDP, WFP, UNIDO, ECOSOC, the Peacebuilding Commission, etc." A query this July to the office of the Secretary-General's Special Adviser on Africa, set up by former Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2003 to help coordinate and keep track of UN operations in Africa, was met by the contact person for that office, David Wright, with the point-blank statement that he did not approve of articles written by this reporter about Mr. Annan and therefore would not provide any information at all.

All that cash and little accountability? The "inside job" as Ms. Rosett calls it ... all that corruption right under our noses. Go read it all.

How well can you connect the dots between disparate news items to make sense of the big picture? Test your forecasting abilities on some of the key issues to be covered in Stratfor's Q4/07 Forecast, to be released next week.

1. Is the United States headed for conflict in Africa? - Yes No

2. Will U.S.-Russian relations improve in the coming months? - Yes No

3. Will the United States pull out of Iraq? - Yes No

4. Is the military losing its grip on Pakistan? - Yes No

Africa

The United States is banding all of its African military operations into a new, separate command called AFRICOM. While AFRICOM officially will help only states that request assistance and participate in counter-terrorism activities, a reorganized U.S. presence in Africa cannot help but attract attention -- and foes.
Russia

Russia is in the midst of a leadership transition, even as opportunities to expand its international influence are greater than ever. The only question is how Moscow will contain its internal chaos while still taking advantage of the United States’ problems in Iraq. But then, that assumes that the chaos is not part of Moscow’s plan.
Iraq

Gen. David Petraeus has made his recommendations to Congress on the conduct of the war, and the Bush administration has adopted them. There are now two theaters in this war: in Iraq, where jihadists will make every effort to disrupt the state, while the U.S. military attempts to carry out the same mission with fewer troops; and in Washington, where partisan politics will continue to create a battleground in the months leading up to the 2008 elections.
Pakistan

The government of Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf is failing – and thus exposing all the ethnic, linguistic, ideological and geographic splits in a nuclear-armed state that plays host to al Qaeda. The nature of the Pakistani government, as well as the entire Afghan front in the war on terrorism, hangs in the balance.

Stormwarning's Counterterrorism Blog has given his opinion on each area of interest here.

So ... what do you predict?
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Comments

[Ralph E]

CORRECTION! Snake Hunter Goof!

FIND MUSLIM APOLOGIST ON
OUR JULY 4TH, 2006 HISTORY POST.

SCROLL DOWN TO BLUE mohamed

So sorry, old & tired! reb

www.lazyonebenn.blogspot.com

[Debbie]

Snake Hunter (a/k/a Ralph E): I went over to your site to read the post you wanted me to see, but I'm not finding it. What's the permalink?

You said, "Check our April, 2006 HISTORY POST, Scroll down to (blue) 'mohamed'. It's where the Fun Begins. Yahooo! reb www.lazyonebenn.blogspot.com"

It must be too late and I need sleep, ha.

Karen: I was not familiar with Claudia Rosett, but after this I will make a point to read her articles.

Yankee Doodle: You are right.

[Ralph E.]

snake hunters sez,

Debbie!

We've captured an Egyptian Law
Student, and key apologist
for Global Jihad.

He has submitted Five Questions, and our Answers
have made life difficult for him!

Check our April, 2006 HISTORY POST, Scroll down

to (blue) 'mohamed'. It's where the Fun Begins. Yahooo! reb

www.lazyonebenn.blogspot.com

[Karen]

Claudia Rosset does excellent work. Her writing on the U.N. has been stellar.

Africa? It has to be dealt with and Bush has begun with the malaria vaccines and AIDS drugs, etc. It all boggles my mind as it is so huge of a question.

[Yankee Doodle]

World War III starts in Africa.