Something stinks about the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran
Something stinks about the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran. For years now the civilized world has worked diligently, both through the United Nations and independently, to stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons. Suddenly we are told there IS NO current nuclear weapons program and has not been since 2003. What gives here?
Today Iran has welcomed the new U.S. intelligence estimate which suggests the Tehran government is not currently trying to develop nuclear weapons. No kidding Iran welcomes this news. It makes Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad look like a saint and the West look like idiots and bullies. Emphasis should be on the fact that Iran was actively trying to build nuclear weapons before 2003.
The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, said the intelligence report "should help to defuse the current crisis" over Iran's nuclear program.
The United States, Britain and France have all said they remain concerned over Iran's intentions.
Israel rejected the intelligence report outright, with Defense Minister Ehud Barak saying he believes it is "incomplete." He said he believes Iran has re-started its nuclear weapons program, although he offered no evidence to back his statement.
In Washington, President Bush called Iran a dangerous country and said there would be no change in U.S. policy. He called for continued international pressure to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. (VOA)
There seems to be a gap between the Israeli and American views. Israel is now publicly challenging the US intelligence report. Strategic Forecast in "The NIE Report: Solving a Geopolitical Problem with Iran, says:
With this announcement, the dynamics of the Middle Eastern region, Iraq and U.S.-Iranian relations shift dramatically. For one thing, the probability of a unilateral strike against Iranian nuclear targets is gone. Since there is no Iranian nuclear weapons program, there is no rationale for a strike. Moreover, if Iran is not engaged in weapons production, then a broader air campaign designed to destabilize the Iranian regime has no foundation either.
In looking at the report, a number of obvious questions come up. First, how did the intelligence community reach the wrong conclusion in the spring of 2005, when it last released an NIE on Iran, and what changed by 2007? Also, why did the United States reach the wrong conclusions on Iran three years after its program was halted? There are two possible answers. One is intelligence failure and the other is political redefinition. Both must be explored.
Reactions:
Don’t let Iran off the hook just yet, By Angela Charlton, Associated Press
European officials, eager not to appear thrown off balance by the surprising report, insisted that the international community should not walk away from years of talks with an often defiant Tehran that is openly enriching uranium for uncertain ends. The report said Iran could still build a nuclear bomb by 2010-15. (continue reading at Peace and Freedom)
Rarely, if ever, has a single intelligence report so completely, so suddenly, and so surprisingly altered a foreign policy debate here. (NYT)
Victor Davis Hanson is fighting a two front war: Since our intelligence estimates are so often wrong, the neocons might still be right about Iran’s nukes. And, if not, it’s only because the neocons were right on Iraq! (The Corner via Outside the Beltway)
Hot Air says:
"NIE: Iran halted its nuke program in 2003 Sort of. Here’s some of the language in the report.
Pondering Penguin quotes:
"Iran was dangerous. Iran is dangerous. Iran will be dangerous," President G.W. Bush. [snip]
The question is why would the Iranians abandon a program in the first place? The report claims the Iranians are rational and respond to international pressure. The pressure was so great from outside that they just shut down their program, you see.
What planet are these 'intelligence professionals' on anyway? The all male panel, by the way, so much for the progressive intelligentsia, thinks the mullahs are rational human beings? (continue reading)
This will likely play more on the Dem side of the street (and the ever-industrious Mr. Smith has thoughts here)
In essence, this NIE is saying, whoops? The basis of our foreign policy assumptions, and estimates from 2003 until October have been DEAD WRONG?
I don't hear the sound of heads rolling, somewhere. This is either a serious mistake, or we have made a serious mistake. The American people need to know why. (continue reading)
Sean Osborne at The NEIN Report:
- I can only estimate that this NEI had within its estimation process certain political motivations which garnered more weight than real-world collected intelligence.
- That this NIE's 'Key Judgements" are a gift to the 2008 Democrat presidential candidates in that they repudiate the continuing intelligence estimates on Iranian nuclear weapons ambitions during the Bush Administration.
- That this NIE had significant problems well before it went to the government printing office and it will now be assailed mercilessly as a result of those problems.
What have the world's experts said on the subject? Lets review:
WORLD LEADERS ON THREAT OF NUCLEAR IRAN & EXPERT SOURCES LIST, from Insight Into Today's Middle East (via email):
Contact: Simon Barrett +44 79 68 11 64 39 simon.b@i-m-i-a.com
EU
The EU ministers said in a statement on October 15, 2007, that the EU "regretted Iran had not complied with the unanimous call of the international community to suspend all enrichment-related activity and had not accepted the offer of negotiation." [1]
United Kingdom"I firmly believe that the sanctions policy that we are pursuing will work, but I'm not one who's going forward to say that we rule out any particular form of action," British Prime Minister Gordon Brown told a news conference, when asked if he would rule out a military strike against Iran. [2]
On October 8, 2007, Gordon Brown told a news conference that Iran's determination to pursue nuclear enrichment activities could not go unchallenged and was a "breach of the non-proliferation treaty". "We take very seriously what Iran is proposing and we are prepared to use the methods that we have used and diplomatic sanctions to deal with this," he said. "And I do not rule out anything." [3]
On October 23, 2007, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that his government will seek further sanctions against Iran through the United Nations and the European Union to discourage Tehran's nuclear ambitions. "We are absolutely clear that we are ready, and will push for, further sanctions against Iran," Brown said. [4]
Britain will push for a worldwide ban on foreign investment in Iran's oil and gas industry and other financial sanctions unless two reports due this month show that it is ready to abandon efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, according to Prime Minister Gordon Brown. In a speech setting out his government's foreign policy agenda, Brown said on November 12, 2007, that Iran posed "the greatest immediate challenge" to the effort to curb the spread of nuclear weapons. He warned Iran that "it has a choice: confrontation with the international community leading to a tightening of sanctions, or, if it changes its approach and ends its support for terrorism, a transformed relationship with the world." [5]
GermanyOn September 26th, 2007, on the occasion of the General Assembly of the UN, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: Lets not get fooled by this. If Iran gets the atomic bomb, this is going to have devastating effects. [6]
Merkel added that the aftermath of a nuclear Iran would initially affect Israel, then the Middle East but shortly Europe and the entire world. Therefore we need to prevent Iran from getting the bomb. [7]
Merkel also said: The world should not be the one to prove that Iran is trying to get the atomic bomb but Iran needs to convince the world that it does not want the bomb. [8]
On November 6, 2007, Merkel reaffirmed Germany's readiness to back tougher sanctions against Iran if it fails to back down in the dispute over its nuclear ambitions: "We are looking, together with our partners, for a diplomatic solution," Merkel said. "Part of that is that Germany, if Iran does not give way, is prepared for further and tougher sanctions." [9]On November 12, 2007, Merkel said: "We want to have Russia and China in the world community that makes clear to Iran that we cannot resign ourselves to this nuclear program". [10]
France
On October 2nd, 2007, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said the West must continue to work on sanctions if it is to be taken seriously by Iran, even as talks continue to resolve a stand-off over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. [11]Kouchner added that the situation in Iran was dangerous and that a nuclear-armed Iran would make the situation in the Middle East even more complicated. [12]
French President Nicolas Sarkozy in an interview with the New York Times on September 21st, 2007, said: Iranian research into military nuclear technology is putting the world at grave risk. This is unacceptable. (...) We strongly urge French companies to refrain from going to Iran as long as the international community has decided to apply sanctions. And if the sanctions are not enough, I would like there to be a third series of stronger sanctions, with the understanding that sanctions can only work if there is unanimity and so we must get everybody on board. [13]
Iran must suspend all its sensitive nuclear activities linked to uranium-enrichment. Our aim is to persuade Iran to stop its nuclear enrichment activities. (...) Non-compliance is the enrichment-related activities and continuation of these activities. So long as the enrichment-related activities continue, there is non-compliance with international obligations. (...) For now Iran is continuing its enrichment activities., the Spokesperson of the French Foreign Ministry said on October 23, 2007. [14]
Sanctions are one way of making Tehran understand our seriousness on the nuclear issue, French Defense Minister Herv Morin said on October 28, 2007. It is in the interest of Iran to choose the path of dialogue and give up its nuclear ambitions, French Defense Minister Herv Morin said addressing a news conference at King Abdul Aziz International Airports Royal Terminal on October 28, 2007. [15]
France's defense minister brushed aside on remarks by the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog that there was no proof Iran was building an atomic bomb, saying France had information to the "contrary". The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohamed ElBaradei said Tehran was still years away from having the ability to produce a nuclear weapon and that the IAEA had no evidence it was building a bomb. [16]
"Our information, which is backed up by other countries, is contrary (to ElBaradei's comments)," Herve Morin told a news conference in Abu Dhabi when asked about ElBaradei's remarks. [17]
Morin said Paris wants sanctions imposed on Iran although such shackles would affect French interests negatively:
"We wish that new economic and financial sanctions by the international community (United Nations and European Union) would be implemented. [18]"These sanctions could be done even to the cost of the French economy and as you know we have important interests of Total and Renault (in Iran)," Morin said. "But for us the Iran nuclear issue is essential to the stability of the (Middle East) region. On this the French political will if final." [19]
EXPERT SOURCES
Frédéric Encel
Frederic Encel is a Middle East expert and author. Encel earned a Ph.D. in Geo-policy at the University of Paris VII and teaches International Relations at the International Institute of Public Administration and at the Institute of Political Studies in Rennes. He is a prolific author and has published several books including: "The Art of War: Strategies and Battles" (2000); "Geopolitics of Israel" (2004) "Understanding the Middle-East: A Necessity for the Republic" (2006). He also works in the field of risk-analysis.
Contact: + 33 (0) 6 60 61 67 67fredencel@hotmail.com
Claude Moniquet
Claude Moniquet is an expert on counter-terrorism and extremism and a specialist on Near and Middle East issues. He is the director of the European Strategic and Intelligence Center. Moniquet focuses on terror networks and their European connections. He has published several books and studies including: "The Faceless War" (2002); "Jihad. Secret History and European Networks" (2004); and "Jihad and Islamism in Belgium" (2005).
Contact: +32 478 288 812esisc@esisc.org
Matthias Küntzel
Matthias Küntzel, Ph.D., is an author and a political scientist from Hamburg, Germany. Küntzel has been researching, writing and publishing on the threat of Islamic Fundamentalism and Iran. In 2006, his work on Ahmadinejad, the Bassiji movement, and Germany's policy towards Iran was published in Internationale Politik, and in The New Republic. Küntzel is also a member of Scholars for Peace in the Middle East.
Contact: +49 453 320 4533
Khattar Abou Diab
Political analyst and consultant, Khattar Abou Diab is a Professor at Paris III University. A specialist on the Middle East and Islam, he is a contributor to both "Cahiers de l’Orient" and "Arabies" magazine.
He is co-author of "The Worldwide Dictionary of Radical Islam" under the direction of Antoine Sfeir.
Contact: +33 (0) 6 71 60 05 23
Dr.Victor Mizin
Dr. Victor Mizin, Vice-President of the Moscow based Center for Strategic Assessments, member of the Center for Political and Military Prognosis of the Russian Academy of Science IMEMO Institute, and the board of the Russian NGO Committee on Critical Technologies and Nonproliferation. Dr. Mizin formally served as a member of Russia 's Ministry of Foreign Affairs where he concentrated on arms control, non-proliferation and global security.
Contact: drvmizin@hotmail.com
[1]Brand, Constant: "EU fails to agree on Iran sanctions," Associated Press, October 15, 2007
[2] Walker, Sophie: "UKs Brown wont rule out military action in Iran," Reuters, July 23, 2007
[3] "Brown not ruling out any option on Iran, Reuters, October 8, 2007
[4]"Gordon Brown says that he backs further sanctions on Iran," Associated Press, October 23, 2007
[5] Burns, John F.: "Britain will leadagainst Iran, Brown says," International Herald Tribune, November 13, 2007
[6] "Iran needs to prove that it does not want the atomic bomb," Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, September 26, 2007
[9] "Germanys Merkel reaffirms readiness to impose more sanctions on Iran," Associated Press, November 6, 2007.
[10] Dempsey, Judy: Merkel and Sarkozy agree on Iran strategy, International Herald Tribune, November 12,2007
[11] "France urges sanction moves to pressure Iran," Reuters, October 2, 2007.
[13] "Interview with Nicolas Sarkozy," The New York Times, September 23, 2007.
[14] Daily Press Briefing, Statements made by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, October 23, 2007
[15] Wahab, Siraj; Al-Saadi, Samir: Well Pressure Iran on Nuke, Arab News, October 29, 2007.
[16]"Iran closer to nuclear bomb than IAEA thinks: France," Reuters, October 29, 2007.
Other stuff:
Concerns Grow Over Risk Of Pakistans Nukes Falling Into Terrorist Hands
President Bush Urged To Prepare To Seize Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
US war games weigh options to secure Pak’s nuke arsenal,,
Terror Alert in Delhi Thanks to National Terror Alert
Palestinian Authority Requests Pre-emptive Release Agreement For Terrorists
Report: Terrorism and Espionage On The Rise In Britain
Salt Lake City - Bomb-making Materials Found After Routine Traffic Stop
Canada - Man Arrested In B.C. Ferry Bomb Threat
The Hidden Face Of The Vlaams Belang (1/8) (2/8) (3/8)
Someone suggested I get a MySpace page. Frankly I don't get it, TypePad, Blogspot, WordPress, etc. are so much easier to use and navigate. But here it is anyway:
http://blog.myspace.com/righttruth
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Trackposted to <a href="http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/12/fallout_from_nie_iran_nuke_assessment/">Outside the Beltway</a>, <a href="http://meanderingpath.blogspot.com/2007/12/ota-open-trackback-120307.html">Mark My Words</a>, <a href="http://rosemarysthoughts.blogspot.com/2007/12/tikrit-law-school-affiliates-with.html">Rosemary's Thoughts</a>, <a href="http://www.adamsweb.us/blog/post-of-the-day-for-december-4-2007/">Adam's Blog</a>, <a href="http://www.bullwinkleblog.com/?p=5471">The Bullwinkle Blog</a>, <a href="http://www.onebigdog.net/harry-reid-is-out-of-touch/">Big Dog's Weblog</a>, <a href="http://leaningstraightup.com/2007/12/03/suffer-the-little-children-part-2-revisited-joseph-duncan-pleads-guilty-to-10-federal-charges/">Leaning Straight Up</a>, <a href="http://amboytimes.typepad.com/the_amboy_times/2007/12/putin-wins-chav.html">The Amboy Times</a>, <a href="http://thepopulistblog.com/2007/12/03/the-early-afternoon-music-club-withandy-mckee/">Chuck Adkins</a>, <a href="http://www.conservativecat.com">Conservative Cat</a>, <a href="http://pursuingholiness.com/2007/12/03/white-teeth-and-the-gospel-of-judas-update/">Pursuing Holiness</a>, <a href="http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot.com/2007/12/its-inexcusable-for-congress-not-to.html">Wake Up America</a>, <a href="http://dragonladysworld.com/wordpress/?p=1390">DragonLady's World</a>, <a href="http://www.anniemayhem.com/cgi-bin/wordpress/?p=1235">The World According to Carl</a>, <a href="http://www.thepiratescove.us/?p=4848">Pirate's Cove</a>, <a href="http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com/bastard/2007/07/rusty_childress_united_for_a_s_1.php">The Pink Flamingo</a>, <a href="http://thomistic.blogspot.com/2007/12/5-months-later-new-republic-admits-lies.html">Dumb Ox Daily News</a>, <a href="http://rightvoices.com/2007/12/03/harry-reid-incompetence/">Right Voices</a>, <a href="http://www.stageleft.info/2007/12/03/because-christianity-was-never-cruel/">Stageleft</a>, and <a href="http://www.yankeesailor.us/?p=502">The Yankee Sailor</a>, thanks to <a href="http://www.linkfests.us">Linkfest Haven Deluxe</a>.
Jack Shepard, for the Republican Nomination for President in the Arizona
. I; Jack Shepard am a message candidate obviously I am not a mult-million dollar media candidate or you would have held this message before. I; Jack Shepard am a Veteran American Service officer with over 36 years experience: back in1970 mostly in North and South America and the last 25 years in the Middle East. I am have chosen to use this years Presidential election to educate the American Voters “how to save ourselves” on the single most important issue concerning YOUR SAFETY AND FUTURE so you my fellow Americans for your survival can pressure THE AMERICAN PRESS “ Our American Mass Media is sadly very bias toward the Israeli Government “always the victim” and blames everything unjustly on the Arabs. I pray after reading this you will contact your local press and ask them to SUPPORT AND PRESSURE THE PRESENT VERY UNPOPULAR ISRAELI GOVERNMENT OF PM OLMERT TO RAPIDLY WORK TOWARD PRESIDENT BUSH’S ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE ACCORD HE OUT LINED AT ANNAPOLIS. AS OF TODAY PM OLMERT HAS NO LISTENED TO TAKE ONE STEP THAT PRESIDENT BUSH ASKED HIM! The reason why America and Americans are presently the center on the War on Terrorism the primary target by every dangerous extreme Jidahist and Islamic terrorists worldwide is because for 5 decades our American Middle East Foreign Policies has been controlled 100% by the Israeli Government Lobby Aipac.org., with a year budget of $100,000,000 with 44 full time staff just in D.C. which servers only the interests of Israel no matter that they as are and have been placed America at great RISK African embassies, 9/11 Etc. If any National Politician would even say one word against the Israeli Nuremberg Level Crimes or Mass Genocide against the Lebanese or Palestinian people this Israeli Government Lobby AIPAC would make sure it was that candidates last term in office. So get to work; stand up and be counted by placing a protest vote for me in Arizona Primary I pray it would force the American Media to discuss the real reasons why American could be destroyed within 5-8 years. A highly classified recent National Intelligence Estimatestarted “that with in the 3-5 years a terrorist organization would more likely them not use their billions of dollars of Heroin profits from Afghanistan to purchase a completed nuclear bomb to use against American or Israel. This National Intelligence Estimatesaid; “that it is more likely that the terrorist can purchase a complete nuclear bomb due to the break out of the old Soviet Union or from instability in Pakistan well before the Iran Government could ever make a nuclear bomb to threaten its neighbours, let alone one that could be delivered by missile to endanger Americas. Dr. Jack Shepard, a candidate in the Arizona Primary, help me save America!
Posted by: Dr. Jack Shepard 4 President | January 19, 2008 at 02:57 PM
Jack Shepard, for the Republican Nomination for President in the Arizona
www.jackshepardforpresident.com
. I; Jack Shepard am a message candidate obviously I am not a mult-million dollar media candidate or you would have held this message before. I; Jack Shepard am a Veteran American Service officer with over 36 years experience: back in1970 mostly in North and South America and the last 25 years in the Middle East. I am have chosen to use this years Presidential election to educate the American Voters “how to save ourselves” on the single most important issue concerning YOUR SAFETY AND FUTURE so you my fellow Americans for your survival can pressure THE AMERICAN PRESS “ Our American Mass Media is sadly very bias toward the Israeli Government “always the victim” and blames everything unjustly on the Arabs. I pray after reading this you will contact your local press and ask them to SUPPORT AND PRESSURE THE PRESENT VERY UNPOPULAR ISRAELI GOVERNMENT OF PM OLMERT TO RAPIDLY WORK TOWARD PRESIDENT BUSH’S ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE ACCORD HE OUT LINED AT ANNAPOLIS. AS OF TODAY PM OLMERT HAS NO LISTENED TO TAKE ONE STEP THAT PRESIDENT BUSH ASKED HIM! The reason why America and Americans are presently the center on the War on Terrorism the primary target by every dangerous extreme Jidahist and Islamic terrorists worldwide is because for 5 decades our American Middle East Foreign Policies has been controlled 100% by the Israeli Government Lobby Aipac.org., with a year budget of $100,000,000 with 44 full time staff just in D.C. which servers only the interests of Israel no matter that they as are and have been placed America at great RISK African embassies, 9/11 Etc. If any National Politician would even say one word against the Israeli Nuremberg Level Crimes or Mass Genocide against the Lebanese or Palestinian people this Israeli Government Lobby AIPAC would make sure it was that candidates last term in office. So get to work; stand up and be counted by placing a protest vote for me in Arizona Primary I pray it would force the American Media to discuss the real reasons why American could be destroyed within 5-8 years. A highly classified recent National Intelligence Estimatestarted “that with in the 3-5 years a terrorist organization would more likely them not use their billions of dollars of Heroin profits from Afghanistan to purchase a completed nuclear bomb to use against American or Israel. This National Intelligence Estimatesaid; “that it is more likely that the terrorist can purchase a complete nuclear bomb due to the break out of the old Soviet Union or from instability in Pakistan well before the Iran Government could ever make a nuclear bomb to threaten its neighbours, let alone one that could be delivered by missile to endanger Americas. Dr. Jack Shepard, a candidate in the Arizona Primary, help me save America!
Posted by: Dr. Jack Shepard 4 President | January 19, 2008 at 02:48 PM
I think anything could be possible. There are any number of possible scenarios where deals could have been made. I'm holding out on that until I know something for sure.
Posted by: Debbie | December 11, 2007 at 07:22 PM
And what do you think of the very popular view by a leading Israeli analyst Obadiah Shoher? He argues (here, for example, www. samsonblinded.org/blog/america-arranges-a-peace-deal-with-iran.htm ) that the Bush Administration made a deal with Iran: nuclear program in exchange for curtailing the Iranian support for Iraqi terrorists. His story seems plausible, isn't it?
Posted by: Alex | December 11, 2007 at 04:02 PM
And what do you think of the very popular view by a leading Israeli analyst Obadiah Shoher? He argues (here, for example, www. samsonblinded.org/blog/america-arranges-a-peace-deal-with-iran.htm ) that the Bush Administration made a deal with Iran: nuclear program in exchange for curtailing the Iranian support for Iraqi terrorists. His story seems plausible, isn't it?
Posted by: Alex | December 11, 2007 at 04:00 PM
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I don't trust Mohammed ElBaradei. His record speaks for itself as to lack of accuracy.
Posted by: Always On Watch | December 05, 2007 at 11:01 AM
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 12/05/2007 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.
http://thunderrun.blogspot.com/2007/12/web-reconnaissance-for-12052007.html
Posted by: David M | December 05, 2007 at 10:53 AM
Deb, this is awesome - wOw!
Conspicuously stashed in the top secret classified bits are especial references to the Syrian strike the IAF and the Great Satan did as well as numerous defecting or disappearing Revo Guard commanders, sacked nuke negotiators, nuclear spies and official and home grown opposition parties inside the IR.
This dance is only begining - hang on ya'll - it's going to be a wild ride!
GsGf has a tease on it.
Posted by: courtneyme109 | December 04, 2007 at 10:36 PM
History repeating itself...
This was from JUST before our invasion into Iraq, 3/17/2003:
Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said,
"I should note that in recent weeks, possibly as a result of increasing pressure by the international community, Iraq has been more forthcoming in its cooperation with the IAEA," he said, adding that inspectors still have found no evidence that Saddam Hussein has revived his nuclear program."
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-03-17-inspectors-iraq_x.htm
Posted by: David | December 04, 2007 at 10:15 PM
"One America, right or wrong, or we all die. That is what is going on here."
I just love that from Rosemary, but here's the translation...
"One America, if you disagree with me you're probably an America hating terrorist and should be shot with out a trial."
The fact of the matter is that American people are finally seeing how eager our chickenhawk President, his "Five-Deferment" VP, and bushbot lemmings are to to start anther bloody war for oil.
Jerks.
Posted by: David | December 04, 2007 at 09:58 PM
"One America, right or wrong, or we all die."
Well, that Sounds like a threat.
So sad, no new war for you bushbots this year... boo hoo, lump of coal.
Posted by: David | December 04, 2007 at 09:40 PM
Debbie, I did a fairly short analysis on this that you might want to take a look at.
Rasta
Posted by: Rastaman | December 04, 2007 at 09:02 PM
Germany was no danger; let them have the Sudetenland, and all will be well!
Year later, World War II.
Iran is no danger; let them do their "peaceful nuke development".
Ain't playing it on me.
Posted by: Skunkfeathers | December 04, 2007 at 07:53 PM
Paladin, look west towards Syria...the "dots" are there I think...especially when you consider the $3 billion reportedly transferred from Syria to Iran toward the end of 2006.
Posted by: Stormwarning | December 04, 2007 at 07:41 PM
Fantastic post, Debbie! Thank you for the link, too.
Posted by: Karen | December 04, 2007 at 07:31 PM
B.T.W. I READ THAT ARTICLE ON SEIZING THE PAKI,S NUCLEAR WEAPONS.I CAN,T SEE THAT BEING A SUCCESS CONSIDERING THEY ARE PROBALY SCATTERED ALL OVER HELL. AND IF THE COUNTRY DOES SUCCUMB TO CHAOS, WHO DO YOU THINK WILL GET THERE FIRST??? THE PAKI ARMY IS FULL OF AL QUEDA 5TH COLUMNISTS.PLUS THE FACT THAT THE PLACES WHERE THEY ARE STORED IS PROBALY GUARDED WITH ALL SORTS OF ANTI AIRCRAFT DEFENSES AND GROUND TO AIR MISSLES. IS SUCH AN OPERATION FEASIBLE??? YES IT IS , BUT IT,S A FACT THAT IT WOULD,NT SUCCEED IN CAPTURING ALL OF EM. THIS IS ANOTHER THING YOU CAN THANK THE CHINESE FOR, AS THEY HELPED THE PAKI,S DEVELOP THEIR NUCLEAR ARSENAL. THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE WEAPONS FALLING INTO MUSLIM TERRORISTS HANDS IS VERY REAL. EVEN ONE IN THE HANDS OF AL QUEDA IS SOMETHING THAT MAKES ME CRINGE. I,M SURE THE WARNING ORDER FOR SUCH AN OP IS ALREADY DRAWN UP , AND IS IN A FILING CABINET IN THE PENTAGON AND DOWN IN LANGLEY. HOPEFULLY THAT ORDER NEVER HAS TO BE IMPLEMENTED.
Posted by: PALADIN | December 04, 2007 at 06:23 PM
HMMMMM??? I WOULD,NT NECESSARILY BELIEVE THIS REPORT EITHER. MAYBE THE DESK PUKES IN THE STATE DEPT ARE SCARED OF ANOTHER WAR???? IT,S NO SECRET THAT MOST OF THE WEENIES THAT INHABIT THAT PLACE ARE A BUNCH OF IVY LEAGUE EMPTY SUITS. OR COULD IT BE PART OF A BIGGER GAME PLAN??? MAYBE THIS IS PART OF A PLAN TO LULL THE IRANIANS INTO BELIEVEING ALL IS WELL? YA JUST NEVER KNOW.
Posted by: PALADIN | December 04, 2007 at 05:57 PM
I still forgot a few. Not everyone who works there is from the State Dept. I meant to add that only about 6 people determined what was going to be in this report, and THEY were from the state dept.
You want to know where those leaks from the past years came from? I would pay very close attention to these people.
Also, most of the depts do not agree with this estimate. So you tell me, if the people who collected the intel do not agree with the stuffed shirts who've never been on a clandestine trip in the worst nightmares, how can they say anything let alone the truth?
If you would like to read the NIE for yourself, I was able find this: http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf
I don't know how to get the one everyone's talking about, but I've heard the second pp contradicts everything these people are saying. Am I angry about this? What do you think? Hell yes!
Posted by: Rosemary | December 04, 2007 at 05:35 PM
1. 1991: Intelligence didn't know Hussein was only 6 mos away from having nuclear weapons.
2. There are wmd in Iraq.
3. There are no wmd in Iraq.
4. We don't know if there was wmd in Iraq.
5. 1995: NIE: We are confident that Iran is working on a nuclear weapons program.
So...you tell me who you trust?
Oh, I forgot a couple.
6. The NIE cosists of over 20 agencies, some you will never hear of, unlike the cia. (Yes, that was a stab in the front.)
7. About 30 people sorted through the intel that was provided to the NIE.
8. ALL THE PEOPLE WHO WORK AT THE NIE ARE FROM THE STATE DEPT. That includes Negraponte who should have been fired back in 2002.
9. Iran says they have it. What happened to the 3000 centrifuges??? Hmm???
This is bs, all over again, and Bush is right to disregard it. I am beginning to hate those people who are making this war that the jihadis have declared AGAINST us into a political issue. One America, right or wrong, or we all die. That is what is going on here.
Posted by: Rosemary | December 04, 2007 at 05:13 PM
Missed my post and others on the subject:
Experts, the NIE and Iran’s Nukes
http://tinyurl.com/2559ma
Posted by: Stormwarning | December 04, 2007 at 05:02 PM