Bio-fuels, Food, and Politics
I have not heard the presidential candidates say much about energy, climate change, and the effects on the human food supply by increasing use of biofuels. It's an important topic, since both humans and livestock need corn and grains to survive. If we end up with a shortage and skyrocketing prices because those crops are being diverted to fuel production, this seems like something that they should be discussing.
Fermenting the Food Supply, Posted by Stuart Staniford at The Oil Drum. Mr. Staniford begins, "Many people are aware that food-based biofuel production has had an influence on food prices. Many people also know that US ethanol production is growing rapidly and now using a noticeable fraction of the total corn supply. However, I'm going to argue that the situation in the near term is potentially more serious than is generally realized."
Modelling Biofuel Production as an Infectious Growth on Food Production
Biofuel capacity or production as a fraction of food supply for three different cases, along with sigmoidal (ie logistic) projections, 1998-2018. Plum curves show US corn ethanol processing capacity in service or under construction as a fraction of ethanol potential of entire US corn crop. Brown curve shows actual production of US ethanol as a fraction of ethanol potential of US corn crop. Violet curve shows global biofuel production as a fraction of estimate of biofuel potential of entire global human food supply. Sigmoidal curves all have K = 1/3 (infection doubling time of three years), and cross the 50% line at 2008, 2010.8 and 2014.2 respectively. Sigmoids are scenarios, not forecasts. Actual biofuel production growth will depend heavily on oil prices and policy responses to increasing food prices. See text for sources and methods.
I will use a mixture of existing data, analysis of biofuel profitability, and simple modeling of biofuel production as an infection or diffusion process affecting the food supply, to demonstrate that there are reasonably plausible scenarios for biofuel production growth to cause mass starvation of the global poor, and that this could happen fairly quickly - quite possibly within five years, and certainly well within the life of the existing policy regimes. It doesn't have to be this way, but unless we start doing things differently soon, the risks are significant.
This piece is very long, and I apologize for that. But I think it's important - I'm coming to the view that biofuel growth is by far the greatest near-term challenge arising from the plateauing of global oil supply that we have experienced over the last two years. (continue reading here)
Politics roundup:
CBS ‘Early Show’ Asks: ‘Is America Finally Color-Blind?’ at NewsBusters
The Ron Paul Revolution Marches On, Stop the ACLU
A sample of really good Americans that know how to make a real difference.
What is a Conservative / Liberal?, St. Louis Blogger
Hillary’s Latest Flip-Flop On Troops In Iraq, Sweetness and Light
New Hampshire Prognosis, Sweet Spirits of Ammonia
... Word has it that Mark Penn, the Clinton strategist is being blamed for her failure to ignite or excite the Democrat voters. Sometimes the problem is not the salesman, but the product.Bad News Barack, from StingRay
... What could we expect out of an Barack Obama presidency? Absolute and total surrender to the murderous thugs who have sworn to destroy us and who are close to having the means to do it. ...
Did anyone else see that?..., asks Speed of Thought
Just now on the FNC's 'Round Table' there where lights on in the building behind them. All of sudden there were people doing stuff in those rooms. Then there were at least three people in orange and yellow vests (security? cops?) that ran through the front door. The people were gone. The lights were off for a few. They came back on. No people. Then a few folks walked out of the building including the people in the vests.
From Sticky Notes: Experience When It Counts:
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Years back when the biofuel thing was first taking off and ethanol was just showing up at the pumps, I realized that it would cut into the food and feed supply. We use corn and grain to feed ourselves and our farm animals, which in turn either become our food or profide food products. We can't be turning our farm land into fuel farming in the face of a growing population and decreasing arable soil. I was wondering how long it would take for reality to strike home and I guess now it finally is starting to.
About that cartoon, Obamas face should be the one in it. Hillary Clinton has far more experience and besides, she's a helluva lot more to the right than that guy. He's the last person I want to see in the White House.
The poll on my site agrees with me. Obama is the only one who has zero votes.
Rasta
Posted by: Rastaman | January 08, 2008 at 01:27 AM
Farmers that grow the corn and other crops that could be used for ethanol fully support the ethanol movement. But every farmer out there knows that it isn't logical. Add up the fuel it takes to plow, plant, harvest, fertilize, and haul the crops; and add to that all the groundwater that many farms use; and add to that the energy the ethanol plant uses to creat the product... and you are using far more resources than the final product can provide.
Sad thing is ethanol is likely here to stay. There will probably be many new additions to the farm bill concerning ethanol. Without subsidies ethanol only loses money.
Posted by: evilfurby | January 08, 2008 at 12:23 AM
Your trackback number keeps giving me an error message. Grrr. (lol)
I did list your post on my front page.
I have just read your article, and voila! NOW it works. Go figure. lol.
Pretty interesting. That thought has occurred to me as well (about the food supply), but who am I? I'm just a right-wing-fascist-nazi-racist-bigotted-anti illegal aliens-children bashing-red blooded American who has a wee blog. :)
PS. I am NOT all of those things, just in case someone does not understand sarcasm. Good grief. Have a great day, sweetie.
Posted by: Rosemary | January 07, 2008 at 06:46 PM