What If The US Had Not Responded As We Did After 9/11?

What if after the attacks on America by the terror group al-Qaeda on September 11, 2001, we had not gone into Iraq or Afghanistan?  How different would things here in the United States be if George W. Bush had not launched those wars? What if the US had not responded to the attacks?  How different would things be if we had foregone Iraq and went directly into Afghanistan?  Or if Pakistan had been our target? (Osama bin Laden was hiding and killed in Pakistan. Al-Qaida's new second-in-command, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, a Libyan nation, was killed in a missile-drone attack this week in Pakistan's tribal region of Waziristan.   Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was captured in Pakistan.)

Without question, the first response would be the huge loss of American lives since  2001 in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Every life that was given to protect the US is precious.  Every military person who lived but suffered physical and emotional loss is precious.  Freedom is not free and the first and most valuable thing to any country is its citizens.  No value can be put on the members of our brave military.  America has forever been changed by the loss of each military man and woman just as America was changed by the almost 3,000 lives taken on September 11, 2001. But who can know how many American lives might have been lost through terror attacks over the past ten years had we not taken the fight to the enemy?

The second response from many will be concerning the cost of the wars.  If there had been no response at all to the terror attacks on US soil, it would have made no difference to the average citizen economically.  I'm not talking about the federal long-term debt and deficit or the economic downfall in 20008-2009, I'm talking about individual finances.  We must also consider the financial cost of potential additional attacks on the US by an enemy that would have been emboldened by no American response, or a timid response. 

One can always argue the pros and cons of how different things would be for the average citizen in Iraq or Afghanistan, had there been no intervention by the United States and coalition countries.  During the years since our military captured Baghdad, brought down the statue of Saddam Hussein and eventually captured him, the people of Iraq have experienced some very bad times and some very good times.  Things are turning around and the average Iraqi can see a glimmer of light for their future.  That would not have been possible without the US.  But that's Iraq, not the US.

Afghanistan is different than Iraq.  Personally, I don't have much hope for any kind of peaceful future in Afghanistan.  However, the US has made some friends on the ground, our military has built schools, hospitals, and tried to make a deal with the Taliban. None of which will last.  I fear that when our military is gone from Afghanistan, things will revert back to the days of Sharia Law, where girls and women are nothing more than chattel, abused, not allowed an education, and al-Qaeda will once again flourish.  But that's Afghanistan, not the US.

We can argue whether al-Qaeda was in Iraq or not prior to September 11, 2001 and we can also argue whether Afghanistan was the 'good war', or not. 

We can ask questions about what the United States would look like politically had Bush not made the decisions he made.  Would he have won a second term?  Would Barack Hussein Obama have been elected in 2008? Would we have been attacked again and if so how would the new president respond, if at all? 

Since I do not have a crystal ball, I cannot answer many of the above questions.  I can make some educated guesses...

If we had not gone into Iraq; 

If we had concentrated on the lawless areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan; 

If we had not launched a full-fledged war in Afghanistan or Iraq, but sent in special ops, drones, missiles with specific targets; 

If we had put aside any attempts to democratize and change the population on the ground and win hearts and minds;...

... Islamic terrorists, by whatever name, would still be plotting terror attacks on the United States, other Western nations, and Israel.

The US economy would still be in jeopardy.

We would still be honoring those who were killed ten years ago as well as the first responders who came to their aid.

We would still be battling the far-Left who want to change this nation.

George W. Bush said, "I can hear you! I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people -- and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon!"   

And hear us they did.  Heaven only knows what the terrorists would have done had we not sent them a strong message.  Because of George W. Bush's response, we increased our abilities to fight terror, we began to recognize the enemy, we began to seriously fight back against the terrorist efforts here at home and abroad.  Could this have been done differently, in different places?  Yes, but it had to be done.

"U.S. counterterrorism policy since 9/11 has been phenomenally successful."

Comments

[McCloud]

Yes they'd still have come after us, likely with WMDs. Each attack was more spectacular than the last.

Yet a lot of folks seem to be living in 20/20 hindsight fairytale land, as if America would be so much better off had Bush not started some wars. It's a mind-numbingly ignorant point of view.

As you said it's impossible to say what would have occurred had we essentially done nothing but we DO know that America was wrapped up tight with Iraq due to the sanctions and no-fly zones, something that could not have gone on forever. Eventually we would have had to change the regime or they would have been deemed to have "disarmed" by writ of the UN.

As to Afghan, Clinton couldn't get AQ there with missiles; the FBI would not have been able to clear the nests against a Taliban army with tanks.

It is what it is.

[Debbie]

I hear you AC. The ideal situation concerning Iraq, would have been to go all the way during the first Gulf war. I still have some hope for Iraq, but I have none for Afghanistan.

With hindsight we can always see where we could have done things differently.

[GoneWithTheWind]

Not responding to open aggression is like not punishing people who come into your country illegally. That is it only encourages them. The first amnesty in the mid 80's was supposed to cover about 3 million illegals. Since then we have gained between 20-30 million illegals depending on which estimate you believe. Why so many? The simple answer is because of how we choose to act. If instead we had put all our efforts into deporting 3 million illegals back in 1986 instead of giving them amnesty today illegal immigration would not be significant. The next amnesty will open the flood gates even wider and we may have 100 million new illegals.

[R.J. Godlewski]

The question is already answered. We did not go to war after Beirut 1983 and it turned into Beirut 1985. We did not go to war after Beirut 1985 and it turned into Lockerbie. We did not go to war after Lockerbie and it turned into WTC '93. We did not go to war after WTC '93 and it turned into OKC (which was planned in part with help from Ramzi Yousef). We did not go to war after OKC and it turned into Khobar Towers '96. We did not go to war after Khobar Towers and it turned into Nairobi and Dar es Salaam 1998. We did not go to war after East Africa '98 and it turned into U.S.S. Cole 2000. We did not go to war after the Cole was bombed and it turned into 9/11.

Enough said.

[MK]

One thing I know for sure is that u would have been less safe and probably would have had another attack like 9/11.

[JON A UNDERWOOD]

I will tell you what would have happened:

The democrats would be screaming for President Bush's blood, just like they were and just like they continue to do so. President Bush would not have been re-elected. Thus, we would have Senator Kerry and Edwards as our Nations leaders from 2005-2009, they would have run for re-election....

I know what you're thinking, we would not have had Obama as our President! hummmmmmm! I'm thinking, a liar and a womanizer versus a fool and an ignoramus, $4 trillion and within 2 more years, 2.4 trillion more in wasted money, I'm still thinking.... I admit it is a tough decision.

There would have been no reason for Mullah Omar, KSM, UBL and "eye-mon" Zawahiri to go anywhere, they would have Stan A, as a true refuge and would not have had to go anywhere to do their evil BS! All the world's terrorists would have a true "Terror Nation State" to plot terror around the world.

Without a response, it would have been used against us as showing that the US was "Gutless" and "Afraid" of Allah's power! That in turn would have recruited millions of more Muslims from the so called "Moderate fringe" to reinforce the terror units around.

UBL would be even more honored for putting the USA in it's place, causing all this economic damage with no response from the "cowardly" President Bush!

Damned if you do, Damned if you don't.... I am glad we had a President of the quality we had with President Bush.

Freedom is not free and believe me, the families have lost so much blood in defending freedom. Their loss will never be lost to American history!

We also would have lost the opportunity to answer the dreams of so many Muslim terrorists, to go to heaven to see their 72 Virgins!

Our Military and "other" folks world wide have done a great job lowering the population of these scum, making the world a safer place... Is it as safe as it could be? No, but we're getting there day by day!

Thank G-od, the American people stand up an deliver! We are it folks, we go, the World goes and if you don't believe that, check out the demographics of Europe.

We are coming to a crossroads, within the next 14 months, either we will continue on as a great nation, with our faults, or, we will face another 4 years of Obama with reduced respect from around the world, a huge loss in economic earnings and stuck with Obama Care....

It's our choice and our future.... Obama out in 2012!

Jon

[Zachriel]

The Iraq War was a debacle for the U.S., the Iraqi people, and the war on terror. The best strategy, which was evident at the time, would have been to keep a small footprint. Topple the Taliban in Afghanistan, but allow the Afghans to reorganize their own society, as long as they ceased to be an international threat. Capturing bin Laden, of course, was essential. War criminals should have been brought to public trial, and the rule of law upheld in all cases.

Saddam had disarmed his WMD per U.N. resolutions, and was no longer a significant threat to the U.S. or its neighbors. Pressure should have been kept on Saddam, and eventually, as with all tyrants, his rule would have ended.

Mobility is the key to military power, and the U.S. sacrificed this mobility attacking a nation that was not a threat. After the Gulf War and Afghanistan, the U.S. appeared invincible. Like the Romans and their roads, the British control of the seas, the American control of the skies in WWII, the Arab ability to move across deserts like oceans, the American Colonialists ability to strike and disappear into the interior, or the Vietnamese into the jungles, effective military power strikes where they want, when they want.

The Iraq invasion tied down and sapped American resources for years, giving the enemy time to study and inflict massive damage against the Americans in Iraq and the Iraqi people. It distracted the U.S. and degraded its own civil society. They abused their allies. They degraded themselves with torture. A great and courageous people cowered.

Only the Iraqi people can make a lasting peace in Iraq. No one in the Arab world looks to Iraq as the model of social change, and are doing everything possible to avoid Iraqization, arqana, the total breakdown of social order as seen under the U.S. occupation.

[Debbie]

Jon, great job of summing up the situation, thanks.

Zachriel: You are right about one thing, in the long run the Iraqi people will have to make a lasting peace in Iraq, or not. We cannot stay there forever. The same goes for any country, whether it's Libya, Syria, ...

[David (DW)]

Watch Syria. The Antichrist arises there.

[JON A UNDERWOOD]

Zach,

Our Blood and Treasure has been used, no doubt. Those two things we need to use sparingly and with a well thought out plan to be sure.

The fact that Saddam and his two scum bag Sons are dead as well, and a huge list of other scum sounds good to me.

I do think we missed out on the mighty midget, Al Sadr, (leader of the Mahdi Army)we should have dropped that worthless lump of flesh when we had a chance...

Another error we did was to play around with the status of the Military, Police and other things.

The Iraqi military should have been retained, triple their pay and investigate everyone over the rank of Major. Remove those responsible, promote from within and re-train the army as required. In regard to the military, That would have given us a large amount of Military to guard the things that were not secured properly.

The Police as well, track down and destroy the secret police and the like. But retain the standard cop on the street to maintain some form of order.... it would have solved a lot of problems.

Just like in Germany in 1945-55, the politics of the situation demanded the Nazi's be removed from every aspect of the government and society.

At the same time, they were the ones who kept things running on time, because during the period of 33-45 if you were not a member of the party, you did not have a job. General Patton faced a lot of grief about "denazification" until his untimely death from injuries sustained in a traffic accident.

There are always problems in war, not only the military side but the after conflict "actions" that need to be done.

I did not hear you say anything about the Libyan "non-war"? What about that? As it seems to have turned out as most of us would have liked to hear, we need to insure that we gauge what we do, and to whom!

We need to support the Syrian people in the "armed" yes "armed" struggle against Assad and his tribe. If he is thrown out of power, the strangle hold they have over Lebanon , to include their support of Hezbollah (Party of god), may shift and allow Israel some peace in the region.

Of course, you won't get anything out of this administration that actually supports a free Israel, existing as a Jewish Nation...

Jon

[Zachriel]

JON A UNDERWOOD: The fact that Saddam and his two scum bag Sons are dead as well, and a huge list of other scum sounds good to me.

Ben Ali, Mubarak and Qaddafi were also removed from power, but at far less cost, and seen as by the will of the people, not imposed by an outside power. Assad may be next.

[JON A UNDERWOOD]

Zach,

Do you really believe that three 3 different actions had no outside influences, no outside manipulation?

I am sure that "The base" and the Muslim Brotherhood and our good friends from Tehran had a direct roll in all three.

Chaos feeds the Mullahs from Persia and until we have a President in DC that gets that and knows that terror is defeated by being prepared to respond, not talk, we will always face the uncertainty of the middle east.

Democracy is a great thing, until one realizes that a republic, as we are blessed to have, is the best that we lowly mortals can come up with.

Qaddafi was removed from power primarily due to NATO and American military power, without which, the situation would have been nothing more than one more Muslim dictator murdering his own people, a true long line of blood.

Our Nation should always Beware of foreign entanglements.....

Jon