Via Realite EU
Today, Iran apparently agreed to ship 1200 kg of
its low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Turkey while receiving fuel rods of
medium-enriched uranium to use in a medical research reactor in Tehran that
produces isotopes for cancer treatment in return. The deal, which was reached in
negotiations with Brazil and Turkey, aims at depriving Iran of enough stocks of
enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb. [1]
Experts say
the agreement may allow Tehran to avert new rounds of UN sanctions. In January,
2010 Iran rejected key parts of a similar uranium exchange deal that had been
agreed upon in Geneva in September, 2009.
After a
meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and signing the deal, Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad called on the permanent members of the UN Security Council (United
States, Russia, China, France and Britain) plus Germany to resume the dialogue
over Iran’s nuclear weapons development program. [2]
Global Reactions: US and Europeans are
skeptical
The White House issued the following statement
today: "We acknowledge the
efforts that have been made by Turkey and Brazil. The proposal announced in
Tehran must now be conveyed clearly and authoritatively to the IAEA before it
can be considered by the international community. Given Iran’s repeated failure
to live up to its own commitments, and the need to address fundamental issues
related to Iran’s nuclear program, the United States and international community
continue to have serious concerns. While it would be a positive step for Iran to
transfer low-enriched uranium off of its soil as it agreed to do last October,
Iran said today that it would continue its 20% enrichment, which is a direct
violation of UN Security Council resolutions and which the Iranian government
originally justified by pointing to the need for fuel for the Tehran Research
Reactor. Furthermore, the Joint Declaration issued in Tehran is vague about
Iran’s willingness to meet with the P5+1 countries to address international
concerns about its nuclear program, as it also agreed to do last October."
[3]
European
leaders were unconvinced that this deal was meaningful in allying concerns
vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear weapons program. French Foreign Ministry spokesman
Bernard Valero said the deal would not resolve core concerns: “[…] Let us not
deceive ourselves, a solution to the (fuel) question, if it happens, would do
nothing to settle the problem posed by the Iranian nuclear
program.” [4]
The office
of EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton in Brussels said the deal “does not
answer all of the concerns” raised by Tehran’s nuclear weapons development
program. [5]
A senior EU
diplomat said the deal could not be considered a breakthrough unless it was
fundamentally based on the fuel-swap proposal made by the IAEA in 2009. “If they
[Iran] are accepting what was originally proposed by the IAEA back in October,
then fine, some progress might be possible. But if this is some new suggestion
that goes in a different direction, then it would appear to be stalling.”
[6]
“Agreement postpones problem…not solves
it”
It is not
clear whether the terms of the deal would fully satisfy the demands of the UN
Security Council. [7] François Géré,
Research Director at the University of Paris III and founding President of IFAS
(French Institute for Strategic Analysis) said that the agreement would only
postpone the problem but not solve it. He further added: “[The deal] involves
sending 1200 kg of 3.5% enriched uranium to Turkey, which corresponds to the
total amount assessed in October 2009. Since then, the Iranians continued to
enrich uranium and have well more than 1200 kg, which they agreed to send
abroad. The agreement does not guarantee that each time Iran restores its
uranium Iran will send it to Turkey. The country does not undertake any effort
to stop its uranium enrichment activities. In six months from now, we could face
the same situation as today and realize that there are tons of enriched uranium
on Iranian soil.” [8]
Fuel
deal versus Iran’s nuclear weapons development
program
Western
diplomats are concerned that Iran wants to create the impression that it was the
fuel deal that was at the center of problems with the West rather than its
nuclear ambitions as a whole. “The deal is not the reason why Tehran is in
trouble. It is the whole nature of the Iranian nuclear program and its refusal
to answer questions,” a Western diplomat said. Furthermore, Western diplomats
argue that removing 1200 kg was less valuable because during the months of not
complying with the original IAEA deal, Iran’s low-enriched uranium stockpile has
almost doubled. [9]
The main
difference from the initial UN-drafted deal is that if Iran does not receive the
fuel rods within a year, Turkey will be required to “quickly and
unconditionally” return the uranium to Iran. Iran feared that under the original
IAEA deal, if a swap fell through, its uranium stock could be seized
permanently. [10]
High-enriched uranium: A core
problem
On February
9, 2010, Iran began enriching high-grade uranium, ignoring the threat of further
UN sanctions. [11] Iran’s atomic energy
chief said Iran would stop producing 20 percent enriched-enriched uranium if it
received fuel from abroad. But in recent talks between Iran and the IAEA this
idea was rejected. “If they refuse to stop enriching to 20 percent and make this
proposal for fuel, then why are they continuing the higher enrichment? There is
no other peaceful justification,” a Western diplomat said.
[12]
No
(real) change of heart
Shortly
after signing the nuclear swap deal, Iran announced to continue its uranium
enrichment activities, including production of 20 percent enriched uranium. Ali
Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization said: “There is no
relation between the swap deal and our enrichment activities […] We will
continue our 20 percent uranium enrichment work.”
[13]
See: Brazilian President To Visit Iran: Nuclear Program Tops Agenda from May 11,2010 and
Strengthening Turkish-Iran Relations Risk UN Sanctions Against the Islamic Republic from March 22, 2010
Experts list and references below the fold:
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