A one day London Conference on Afghanistan to be held at Lancaster House on January 28, 2010, will see more than sixty countries and international organizations gather to focus on three key agenda items: security, economic development and governance, and regional relations. The Yemen conference will be held on January 27, 2010. Turkey will host a meeting of Afghanistan's neighbors on January 26. There will also be post-conference meetings in Kabul.
A copy of the draft communique, obtained by Reuters, anticipates Afghan troops to take "security primacy" in
some provinces by early 2011, with foreign forces in a supporting role. The communique also commits Afghanistan to
establish -- and the West to fund -- a program to "reach out to
insurgents" and pay fighters to lay down arms. (Reuters)
"It is very important that the political system
is open enough to bring those insurgents who are willing to work within
the Afghan constitution," Foreign Secretary David Miliband told BBC
television.
Reconciliation with the Taliban similar to the reconciliation with the Sons of Iraq, JAM, individual tribes and other groups in Iraq over the last few years? Can you picture a Taliban member or Taliban representative at the table for the London conference? Can you picture Mullah Omar ready to lay down arms and join the political process? Will the Taliban reject sharia law, allow women to shed the burqua and veil, participate in business and politics?
The United States recognizes that the Taliban are now
part of the political fabric of Afghanistan,
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates
said here on Friday, but the group must be prepared to play a legitimate role
before it can reconcile with the Afghan government.
That means, Mr. Gates said, that the Taliban must participate in
elections, not oppose education and not assassinate local officials. (New York Times)
Can you moderate the Taliban, and if so what would you get??? Something similar to a Wahhabi??? If we invite the Taliban to the table at the Afghanistan conference, shouldn't we then invite representatives from al-Qaeda to the Yemen conference??? Do we think they too can be moderated? And if so what would that look like? Can we picture Taliban and al-Qaeda 'participating in the political process'???
Attendees to the Afghanistan conference will include Afghan President Hamid
Karzai, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, NATO Secretary-General
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lawrence Cannon, several European, Asian and Middle Eastern countries, and
foreign ministers of Afghanistan's other foreign partners. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said if Iran’s views are considered at the conference, Tehran will study the invitation to attend the conference with a positive view; otherwise there will be no reason to attend the conference.
Nato commanders and the Afghan government will say they must grow the
Afghanistan army from its current level of 100,000 to 172,000 and the police force must also rapidly grow from 95,000 to 109,000 by October next year. (The Telegraph) No easy task.
After the recent fraud-filled
elections in Afghanistan, presidential and parliamentary elections
originally scheduled for May 22, 2010 have now been postponed until September 18, 2010.
This past week the terror threat to the UK was raised to "severe" - meaning an attack is considered "highly
likely"- raising much speculation as to the reason for this change. It was feared the London conferences on Yemen and Afghanistan could be used by al-Qa'ida
as an opportunity to strike at the West, Whitehall sources said
yesterday. Other concerns were a warning that a
group of female terrorists, who may have a "non-Arab" appearance,
had been trained to attack western targets, and MI5
fears that Islamic terrorists planned to hijack an Indian airliner and crash
it into a British city. (Independent.uk)
In addition to the London conferences and items listed above, there are many other reasons for terror concerns --the
trial in New York of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed; other potential Yemen terrorists following the underwear bomber on Northwest Airlines plane to Detroit on Christmas Day; Al-Qa'ida
in the Arabian Peninsula promising blue-eyed, blond terrorists headed to the U.S.; the Western-looking women suicide bombers; the killing of CIA agents in an attack on a US base in
Afghanistan last month; and an audio tape from Al-Qaeda's number one Osama bin Laden today.
"The Osama bin Laden audio message released to Al-Jazeera on 24 January
2010 contains specific language used by bin Laden in his statements in
advance of attacks," IntelCenter said in a statement.
The group said it considered the language "a possible indicator of an upcoming attack" in the next 12 months.
"This phrase, 'Peace be upon those who follow guidance,' appears at the
beginning and end of messages released in advance of attacks that are
designed to provide warning to Al-Qaeda's enemies that they need to
change their ways or they will be attacked," the group said. (More)
Robert Gates said, "al-Qaeda, the Taliban in Afghanistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan,
Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Haqqani network – this is a syndicate of
terrorists that work together" ... al-Qaeda was "orchestrating attacks" using these different groups." He later backtracked saying "they don't operationally co-ordinate their activities, as best I can tell". Well, which is it?
Four years ago on February 1, 2006, the Afghanistan Compact was signed as the way forward for Afghanistan and the international community.
Also
known as the London Agreement, the Afghanistan Compact had the
Government of Afghanistan and the international community affirming
“their shared commitment to continue, in the spirit of the Bonn, Tokyo
and Berlin conferences, to work toward a stable and prosperous
Afghanistan, with good governance and human rights protection for all
under the rule of law, and to maintain and strengthen that commitment
over the term of this Compact and beyond.” (United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan)
Concerning Afghanistan, we can expect a similar document to be accepted and signed at this 2010 conference.
American officials have given qualified support to a proposed Afghan
initiative to provide jobs, security and social benefits to Taliban
followers who defect.
Concerning the Yemen conference: A Yemen delegation, led by Prime Minister Ali Muhammad
al-Mujawar, comprises Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Kurbi, Minister of
Planning and International Cooperation Abdul Karim al-Arhabi and Deputy
Prime Minister for Security and Defense Affairs Rashad al-Alimi, and about 21 countries are expected to attend the London
conference on supporting Yemen's efforts to get rid of extremist
groups, including the United State, the Gulf Cooperation Council's
states, Jordan, Turkey, Russia, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, the
Netherlands, Canada, the United Nations, the World Bank, Saba News said. All this in spite of terror fears from al-Qaeda in the region, according to Xinhauanet.
I wish attendees of both conferences God-speed in their efforts. With low expectations perhaps I will be pleasantly surprised. I'm sure U.S. President Barack Obama is looking forward to something positive from these conferences with goals of (1) having something positive for his State of the Union speech; (2) encouragement for a quick withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan; (3) and perhaps getting some real commitment from the terror training ground known as Yemen.
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