Under the Nuclear Deluge: Practical Planning for the Unimaginable
Practical Planning for the Unimaginable
by Ronald John Godlewski
Paper Originally submitted to American Military University
HLSS 233 Explosive Incident Assessment
Professor Dawkins
July 7, 2009
The evolutionary nature of terrorism dictates that its practitioners will utilize the most destructive weapon at their disposal and when this option finally reaches the nuclear stage, the subsequent evolution of society may become its first casualty. With the United States firmly pegged as Islamic terrorism’s ennemi public numéro un, America’s leaders have emulated the character Indiana Jones in Raiders of the Lost Ark – desperately trying to outrun the nuclear “boulder” at the expense of merely getting out of its way. Stepping aside of nuclear terrorism may not seem politically palatable, but until the United States Government seriously considers proactive response to the threat, even simple blackmail could significantly disrupt America’s future (Ferguson and Potter 2004, 5). Such a future may, therefore, rest entirely within the hands of ordinary citizens.
Alice through the cooking gas.
High-casualty terrorist attacks on American interests have had “significant strategic outcomes” for the benefit of those perpetrating such heinous crimes (Merari 1998, 192). Nothing, however, could be considered more strategically “significant” than a nuclear attack upon American soil. Although few terrorist groups can be considered sufficiently motivated to unleash nuclear horror upon the United States (Ferguson and Potter 2004, 6), this does not preclude the existence of a rogue state inspiring a non-state partner. Nor does it dismiss the reality that prior to September 11, 2001 few considered the use of commercial aircraft as guided missiles capable of taking out one of the world’s most recognized landmarks.
In fact, the events of 9/11 may have been a low-cost, low-tech alternative to using a crude nuclear device to topple the World Trade Center (Hughes 1996, 56). Would the “next 9/11” progress further up or down the technology scale? The world will not know until it actually happens. Fortunately, there is some historical precedence in terrorists using tried and true methods to enact their craft (Ellis 2007, 118-151). This would seem to suggest that the nuclear option is not considered practical enough for experimentation. Having said that, we need to consider not only September 11th – which took vehicular borne attacks to literally new heights – but also the Chechen separatists’ use of cesium-137 in Moscow (Aloise 2007, 6).
Nuclear devices thus represent the epitome of terror weapons and, therefore, symbolize the Holy Grail for any organization that seeks to grab the attention of the world’s political, media, and public bodies. Just the mere thought of vaporizing tens of thousands, if not millions, of innocent souls is sufficient enough to safeguard the objective of any terrorist organization. Moreover, a nuclear weapon in the hands of a rogue organization need not be as accurately delivered as its Cold War superpower cousins. A simple device touched off within the confines of any metropolitan area will far exceed the total death and destruction of both the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks in 2001.
The lethality of a nuclear explosion rests with the combination of blast, thermal, and radiation energies unleashed upon the target environment (Glasstone and Dolan 1977, 588). The significant difference in comparsion with conventional explosives being that those caught outside during a nuclear attack are more susceptible to radiation exposure than those safely tucked away in office buildings (Glasstone and Dolan 1977, 588). The awesome power of even a relatively small Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) warrants considerable attention from the federal government. Yet, the question remains, has the United States Government effectively planned for this potentiality?
To defend or not to defend, that is the question…
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